fix(content): PR #64 round 2 — NPC ID, outcome gating, fact stubs

Fix npc:nils → npc:nils-davan canonical ID mismatch. Replace
auto-flag gates on ring_completes/ring_splinters with player-
action-gated fact conditions (unreachable outcomes). Add
ring_stalemate terminal exit for non-terminal ring_splinters.
Create ring.yaml with 10 fact stubs for content/global/knowledge/.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

content/modules/tier1/smuggling_ring_v0_1.yaml

@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ npc_requirements:
       Handles physical drops. Not a speaking character — observable behavior only.
       Can be the anonymous contact Kael meets.
     binding: named
-    named_npc: "npc:nils"
+    named_npc: "npc:nils-davan"
     is_optional: false
 
   - role: institutional-watcher
@@ -580,9 +580,11 @@ outcomes:
       flags_set:
         - final_shipment_known       # set by final_shipment_scheduled event
         - timeline_accelerating      # set by maret_increases_presence — Maret forced their hand
-      flags_not_set:
-        - kael_message_sent    # If this is NOT set, Kael's cooperation went unnoticed
+      facts_not_known:
+        - "ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern"   # detective never found the basic pattern — no investigation
       ticks_since_activation: 3600    # Module ran for ~60 minutes without full exposure
+      # kael_message_sent was previously gated here but auto-fires at tick ~1550,
+      # making this outcome permanently unreachable. Replaced with player-action fact gate.
     effects:
       - type: faction_reaction
         faction: the-ring
@@ -611,14 +613,14 @@ outcomes:
       faces an awkward return to normalcy. Both know the ring isn't gone — just quiet.
     conditions:
       facts_known:
-        - "ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern"
+        - "ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern"   # detective found some evidence — ring responds
       events_fired:
         - kael_goes_cold             # event ID — Kael's behavioral shift fired
       flags_set:
         - kael_missed_drop           # set by drop_happens_without_kael — ring destabilized
-      flags_not_set:
-        - kael_message_sent
       ticks_since_activation: 2400
+      # Mutually exclusive with ring_completes via facts_known/facts_not_known on
+      # ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern. No auto-flag gate needed.
     effects:
       - type: npc_disposition
         npc_role: ring-leader
@@ -632,8 +634,38 @@ outcomes:
         reaction: suspicious
         description: "The ring is alerted to exposure risk. Future operations will be more careful."
 
-  # 5. MODULE EXPIRY (quiet exit)
-  # Player never engaged. Module times out without drama.
+  # 5. INVESTIGATION STALLS (post-splinter exit)
+  # The ring splinters but the detective never breaks through to the pivot evidence.
+  # Explicit terminal exit for the non-terminal ring_splinters state.
+  - outcome_id: ring_stalemate
+    label: "Investigation Stalls"
+    is_terminal: true
+    description: >
+      The ring went dark after the splinter. The detective has the cargo discrepancy
+      on record — enough to flag, not enough to pursue. The case stays open but cold.
+      No arrests. No answers. Kael stays in the district, the only person who knows
+      the full shape of what happened, with no one left to tell it to.
+      The ring will reconstitute elsewhere. It always does.
+    conditions:
+      facts_known:
+        - "ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern"       # ring_splinters already fired (same gate)
+      facts_not_known:
+        - "ring.kael_unauthorized_corridor_access"  # detective never reached the pivot evidence
+      flags_set:
+        - kael_missed_drop
+        - final_shipment_known                   # ring finished while investigation stalled
+      ticks_since_activation: 4500    # 2100 ticks after ring_splinters window — investigation ran cold
+    effects:
+      - type: faction_reaction
+        faction: lattice-commission
+        reaction: neutral
+        description: "The discrepancy flag stays in Maret's file. No follow-up action."
+      - type: npc_exit
+        npc_role: ring-leader
+        description: "Voss quietly transfers. No announcement, no incident report."
+
+  # 6. MODULE EXPIRY (quiet exit)
+  # Player never engaged at all. Module times out without drama.
   # NOTE (Gestalt, Sprint 18): Condition uses facts_not_known, not flags_not_set.
   # kael_behavior_changed fires automatically at tick 300 (time-triggered), making
   # flags_not_set: [kael_behavior_changed] permanently false after tick 300.