fix(content): PR #64 round 2 — NPC ID, outcome gating, fact stubs

Fix npc:nils → npc:nils-davan canonical ID mismatch. Replace
auto-flag gates on ring_completes/ring_splinters with player-
action-gated fact conditions (unreachable outcomes). Add
ring_stalemate terminal exit for non-terminal ring_splinters.
Create ring.yaml with 10 fact stubs for content/global/knowledge/.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

content/global/knowledge/ring.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,106 @@
+# Fact catalog: ring
+# Smuggling ring module event trail — observable evidence produced by module events.
+# These facts are made discoverable by specific events in smuggling_ring_v0_1.yaml.
+# Stub entries — description and confidence level confirmed; progression text TBD.
+# Ticket: #158 | Sprint 18
+
+facts:
+
+  - fact_id: ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern
+    description: Cargo manifests at The Terminal show small, systematic discrepancies — weight variances, unverified entries, containers with no return log
+    typical_confidence: suspects
+    characters: [smuggler, detective]
+    notes: >
+      Detective's analytical lattice may flag this automatically during Terminal walkthrough.
+      Smuggler encounters it during operational paperwork checks. Pattern becomes clearer over
+      multiple observations (once: false event — repeats). Starting entry point for both
+      investigation arcs.
+
+  - fact_id: ring.kael_missed_verification
+    description: Kael Davan was absent from a scheduled cargo verification — another dock worker covered without explanation
+    typical_confidence: suspects
+    characters: [smuggler, detective]
+    notes: >
+      Discoverable via cargo manifest review (Terminal office) or analytical lattice flag
+      (detective). Smuggler notices the irregularity in their own paperwork. First concrete
+      evidence that Kael is deviating from his normal operational reliability.
+
+  - fact_id: ring.kael_unauthorized_corridor_access
+    description: Kael was observed in restricted maintenance corridor B-7 during off-shift hours with an unknown contact
+    typical_confidence: knows_of
+    characters: [smuggler, detective]
+    notes: >
+      Core FRIEND contradiction observable (D-034). Player must be in visual range of B-7
+      to discover this, OR examine the corridor door access log (investigative action).
+      Both characters can discover this fact — interpreted differently (smuggler: security
+      breach / detective: suspicious contact). Upgrades from suspects to knows_of when
+      contact identity confirmed, knows_details when purpose confirmed.
+
+  - fact_id: ring.kael_unusual_meridian_activity
+    description: Encrypted Meridian packets sent from cargo bay terminals — frequent, patterned, not from personal devices
+    typical_confidence: suspects
+    characters: [detective]
+    notes: >
+      Detective-only. Requires analytical lattice to flag the outgoing packet pattern.
+      Player must be in or adjacent to The Terminal cargo bay. Content not accessible —
+      only the existence and frequency of the encrypted messages. Hints at Kael's
+      off-district contact without revealing who.
+
+  - fact_id: ring.voss_kael_private_meeting
+    description: Voss called Kael into the supervisor's office — closed door, raised voices audible from adjacent position
+    typical_confidence: suspects
+    characters: [smuggler, detective]
+    notes: >
+      Observable via spatial positioning (supervisor's office area). Smuggler can witness
+      the approach and departure without hearing content. Detective observes Kael's visible
+      strain immediately after if present in The Terminal. Upgrade to knows_of via
+      trust-gated dialogue with Kael ("Are you alright?" option unlocks post-meeting).
+
+  - fact_id: ring.voss_accelerating_timeline
+    description: Voss is pushing to close ring operations faster than normal — someone is watching
+    typical_confidence: knows_of
+    characters: [smuggler, detective]
+    notes: >
+      Smuggler: Voss mentions "the schedule moving up" in guarded conversation (trust-gated,
+      ring-insider access required). Detective: observe Voss and Nils in two exchanges within
+      the same shift and note behavioral change. Not directly stated — inferred from context.
+
+  - fact_id: ring.commission_cargo_flag
+    description: A Commission internal note flags The Terminal's cargo variance rate as statistically unusual
+    typical_confidence: knows_of
+    characters: [detective]
+    notes: >
+      Detective-only. Accessible via institutional Commission query (authority access tier,
+      Terminal records). Not a formal investigation — just an internal flag from Maret Korr.
+      Confirms the detective's suspicions with institutional weight. Smuggler has no way to
+      know this exists.
+
+  - fact_id: ring.final_shipment_scheduled
+    description: The ring has scheduled a major final drop — after it clears, operations go dark
+    typical_confidence: knows_of
+    characters: [smuggler, detective]
+    notes: >
+      Smuggler: direct notification from Voss (ring-insider access). Detective: cargo manifest
+      shows an unusually large entry scheduled 3 days out — no obvious legitimate reason for
+      the volume. This fact creates the closing window — both characters know time is running
+      out, for different reasons.
+
+  - fact_id: ring.sera_avoidance_behavior
+    description: Sera Venn takes longer routes through The Last Shift to avoid standing near Torek Lintar
+    typical_confidence: suspects
+    characters: [detective]
+    notes: >
+      Detective-only observable. Player must observe Sera's movement pattern on two separate
+      occasions — requires forward vision cone and awareness of her baseline route. The
+      avoidance is visible but not explained. Points toward Sera holding information about
+      Torek's investigation without having acted on it.
+
+  - fact_id: ring.nils_unlogged_cargo
+    description: Nils makes regular supply runs to maintenance corridor C-7 with containers that never appear in return logs
+    typical_confidence: suspects
+    characters: [smuggler, detective]
+    notes: >
+      Discoverable by watching Nils's cargo handling pattern over two shifts, or by examining
+      the maintenance corridor C-7 access log directly. The missing return entry is the tell —
+      the container went in but never came back. Both characters can find this; smuggler may
+      already suspect given operational context.

content/modules/tier1/smuggling_ring_v0_1.yaml

@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ npc_requirements:
       Handles physical drops. Not a speaking character — observable behavior only.
       Can be the anonymous contact Kael meets.
     binding: named
-    named_npc: "npc:nils"
+    named_npc: "npc:nils-davan"
     is_optional: false
 
   - role: institutional-watcher
@@ -580,9 +580,11 @@ outcomes:
       flags_set:
         - final_shipment_known       # set by final_shipment_scheduled event
         - timeline_accelerating      # set by maret_increases_presence — Maret forced their hand
-      flags_not_set:
-        - kael_message_sent    # If this is NOT set, Kael's cooperation went unnoticed
+      facts_not_known:
+        - "ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern"   # detective never found the basic pattern — no investigation
       ticks_since_activation: 3600    # Module ran for ~60 minutes without full exposure
+      # kael_message_sent was previously gated here but auto-fires at tick ~1550,
+      # making this outcome permanently unreachable. Replaced with player-action fact gate.
     effects:
       - type: faction_reaction
         faction: the-ring
@@ -611,14 +613,14 @@ outcomes:
       faces an awkward return to normalcy. Both know the ring isn't gone — just quiet.
     conditions:
       facts_known:
-        - "ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern"
+        - "ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern"   # detective found some evidence — ring responds
       events_fired:
         - kael_goes_cold             # event ID — Kael's behavioral shift fired
       flags_set:
         - kael_missed_drop           # set by drop_happens_without_kael — ring destabilized
-      flags_not_set:
-        - kael_message_sent
       ticks_since_activation: 2400
+      # Mutually exclusive with ring_completes via facts_known/facts_not_known on
+      # ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern. No auto-flag gate needed.
     effects:
       - type: npc_disposition
         npc_role: ring-leader
@@ -632,8 +634,38 @@ outcomes:
         reaction: suspicious
         description: "The ring is alerted to exposure risk. Future operations will be more careful."
 
-  # 5. MODULE EXPIRY (quiet exit)
-  # Player never engaged. Module times out without drama.
+  # 5. INVESTIGATION STALLS (post-splinter exit)
+  # The ring splinters but the detective never breaks through to the pivot evidence.
+  # Explicit terminal exit for the non-terminal ring_splinters state.
+  - outcome_id: ring_stalemate
+    label: "Investigation Stalls"
+    is_terminal: true
+    description: >
+      The ring went dark after the splinter. The detective has the cargo discrepancy
+      on record — enough to flag, not enough to pursue. The case stays open but cold.
+      No arrests. No answers. Kael stays in the district, the only person who knows
+      the full shape of what happened, with no one left to tell it to.
+      The ring will reconstitute elsewhere. It always does.
+    conditions:
+      facts_known:
+        - "ring.cargo_discrepancy_pattern"       # ring_splinters already fired (same gate)
+      facts_not_known:
+        - "ring.kael_unauthorized_corridor_access"  # detective never reached the pivot evidence
+      flags_set:
+        - kael_missed_drop
+        - final_shipment_known                   # ring finished while investigation stalled
+      ticks_since_activation: 4500    # 2100 ticks after ring_splinters window — investigation ran cold
+    effects:
+      - type: faction_reaction
+        faction: lattice-commission
+        reaction: neutral
+        description: "The discrepancy flag stays in Maret's file. No follow-up action."
+      - type: npc_exit
+        npc_role: ring-leader
+        description: "Voss quietly transfers. No announcement, no incident report."
+
+  # 6. MODULE EXPIRY (quiet exit)
+  # Player never engaged at all. Module times out without drama.
   # NOTE (Gestalt, Sprint 18): Condition uses facts_not_known, not flags_not_set.
   # kael_behavior_changed fires automatically at tick 300 (time-triggered), making
   # flags_not_set: [kael_behavior_changed] permanently false after tick 300.