settled-reach/tooling/econ-sim/src/model.rs

//! Layer 1: Leontief production + consumption + price adjustment.
//! Layer 2: Spatial price equilibrium via damped tâtonnement (D-178).
//!
//! Each system with economic activity (corp presence or population > 0)
//! is an active market node. Goods flow along gate links when price
//! differentials exceed transport costs (α=0.03, β=0.4).
//!
//! Layer 3 (corporate behavioral agents) is added in #809.
//!
//! Reference: D-178 (Economic Model Architecture)

use std::collections::BTreeMap;

use crate::agents;
use crate::currency::{CurrencyState, ShadowEconomy};
use crate::db::Economy;
use crate::seed::Productivity;
use crate::trade;

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Constants
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

/// Price adjustment rate per tick (α=0.03, D-178 Layer 2).
const ALPHA: f64 = 0.03;

/// Baseline production capacity per corp per tick (units/tick).
const BASELINE_CAPACITY: f64 = 10.0;

/// Initial stockpile buffer (in ticks of baseline demand).
const INITIAL_STOCKPILE_BUFFER: f64 = 4.0;

/// Per-capita demand coefficient for final goods (units/tick per person).
const DEMAND_PER_CAPITA_FINAL: f64 = 1.0e-6;
/// Per-capita demand coefficient for services (units/tick per person).
const DEMAND_PER_CAPITA_SERVICE: f64 = 0.5e-6;

/// Fusion fuel utility demand reduction for gate-energy-connected nodes (D-186, D-188).
const GATE_ENERGY_DEMAND_REDUCTION: f64 = 0.3;

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Node state
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct CommodityState {
    pub supply: f64,
    pub demand: f64,
    pub price: f64,
    pub stockpile: f64,
}

#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct NodeState {
    pub system_id: String,
    /// commodity_id → state
    pub commodities: BTreeMap<String, CommodityState>,
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Tick snapshot (output record)
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

#[derive(Debug, Clone)]
pub struct TickRecord {
    pub tick: u32,
    pub node_id: String,
    pub commodity_id: String,
    pub supply: f64,
    pub demand: f64,
    pub price: f64,
    /// Node-level shadow economy intensity [0.0, 1.0] (D-174, Signal 7).
    /// Same value for all commodities at this node/tick.
    pub shadow_intensity: f64,
    /// Tractus/Mark exchange rate at this tick (1.0 = parity, D-171).
    pub tractus_mark_rate: f64,
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Simulation
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

/// Run the Layer 1+2 simulation for `ticks` ticks.
///
/// Layer 1: Leontief production + consumption + stockpile update.
/// Layer 2: Damped tâtonnement trade flows along gate links (D-178).
///   Currency zone friction and exchange rate adjustment (D-171, D-172).
///
/// Returns a flat list of TickRecords (one per active node×commodity×tick).
pub fn run(
    economy: &Economy,
    productivity: &BTreeMap<(String, String), Productivity>,
    shadow: &ShadowEconomy,
    adjacency: &BTreeMap<String, Vec<String>>,
    ticks: u32,
) -> Vec<TickRecord> {
    let archetypes = agents::build_archetype_map(economy.corp_archetype_data.clone());
    let mut nodes = init_nodes(economy);
    let mut currency = CurrencyState::new();
    let mut records = Vec::new();

    for tick in 0..ticks {
        step(economy, productivity, shadow, &archetypes, &mut nodes);
        trade::trade_step(economy, &mut nodes, adjacency, &mut currency);
        currency.update_rate();

        let fx_rate = currency.tractus_mark_rate;
        for node in nodes.values() {
            let node_shadow = shadow
                .intensity
                .get(&node.system_id)
                .copied()
                .unwrap_or(0.0);
            for (commodity_id, state) in &node.commodities {
                records.push(TickRecord {
                    tick,
                    node_id: node.system_id.clone(),
                    commodity_id: commodity_id.clone(),
                    supply: state.supply,
                    demand: state.demand,
                    price: state.price,
                    shadow_intensity: node_shadow,
                    tractus_mark_rate: fx_rate,
                });
            }
        }
    }

    records
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Initialization
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

fn init_nodes(economy: &Economy) -> BTreeMap<String, NodeState> {
    let mut nodes: BTreeMap<String, NodeState> = BTreeMap::new();

    // Activate nodes that have corp presence or non-zero population
    for (system_id, system) in &economy.systems {
        let has_corps = economy.presences_by_system.contains_key(system_id);
        let has_population = system.population > 0;
        if !has_corps && !has_population {
            continue;
        }

        let mut commodity_states: BTreeMap<String, CommodityState> = BTreeMap::new();
        for commodity in &economy.commodities {
            let base_price = commodity.base_price;
            let base_demand = base_population_demand(system.population, &commodity.tier);
            // Warm start: all commodities get a baseline inventory so production
            // chains can run from tick 0. This represents the "economy already
            // operating" state rather than a cold start from empty warehouses.
            let stockpile = BASELINE_CAPACITY * INITIAL_STOCKPILE_BUFFER;
            commodity_states.insert(
                commodity.id.clone(),
                CommodityState {
                    supply: 0.0,
                    demand: base_demand,
                    price: base_price,
                    stockpile,
                },
            );
        }

        nodes.insert(
            system_id.clone(),
            NodeState {
                system_id: system_id.clone(),
                commodities: commodity_states,
            },
        );
    }

    nodes
}

/// Baseline population-driven demand for direct consumption.
///
/// Raw and intermediate commodities have zero direct population demand —
/// they are consumed through production chains only.
fn base_population_demand(population: i64, tier: &str) -> f64 {
    let pop = population as f64;
    match tier {
        "final" => pop * DEMAND_PER_CAPITA_FINAL,
        "service_professional" | "service_luxury" => pop * DEMAND_PER_CAPITA_SERVICE,
        _ => 0.0, // raw and intermediate: demand comes from production chain inputs only
    }
}

// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
// Simulation step
// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

/// Fraction of formal demand that shadow economy can satisfy at intensity=1.0.
///
/// Shadow goods circulate outside formal channels, reducing stockpile
/// consumption by formal-sector demand. At 0% intensity, no shadow goods.
/// At 100% intensity, shadow goods meet up to this fraction of demand.
const SHADOW_DEMAND_COVERAGE: f64 = 0.30;

fn step(
    economy: &Economy,
    productivity: &BTreeMap<(String, String), Productivity>,
    shadow: &ShadowEconomy,
    archetypes: &BTreeMap<String, agents::Archetype>,
    nodes: &mut BTreeMap<String, NodeState>,
) {
    // Process each active node independently (Layer 1: no inter-system trade)
    let system_ids: Vec<String> = nodes.keys().cloned().collect();

    for system_id in &system_ids {
        let node = nodes.get_mut(system_id).unwrap();
        let system_info = match economy.systems.get(system_id) {
            Some(s) => s,
            None => continue,
        };

        // Reset per-tick supply
        for state in node.commodities.values_mut() {
            state.supply = 0.0;
        }

        // --- Production step ---
        // For each corp present at this node, run the production chains
        // that produce their primary_operation commodity.
        let corps = economy
            .presences_by_system
            .get(system_id)
            .cloned()
            .unwrap_or_default();

        for corp_presence in &corps {
            let prod = match productivity.get(&(corp_presence.corp_id.clone(), system_id.clone())) {
                Some(p) => p,
                None => continue,
            };

            let primary_op = match &corp_presence.primary_operation {
                Some(op) => op.clone(),
                None => continue,
            };

            // Layer 3: behavioral archetype parameters for this corporation
            let arch_params = archetypes
                .get(&corp_presence.corp_id)
                .map(|a| a.params())
                .unwrap_or_else(|| agents::Archetype::Producer.params());

            // Effective baseline = BASELINE_CAPACITY scaled by archetype
            let effective_capacity = BASELINE_CAPACITY * arch_params.production_scale;

            // Determine the tier of the primary_operation commodity
            let tier = economy
                .commodity_map
                .get(&primary_op)
                .map(|c| c.tier.as_str())
                .unwrap_or("");

            if tier == "raw" {
                // Raw materials: direct extraction — no chain inputs required (D-177).
                let gross_output = effective_capacity * prod.extraction_rate;
                // Monopolist withholds a fraction of output
                let net_output = gross_output * (1.0 - arch_params.supply_withheld);
                if let Some(state) = node.commodities.get_mut(&primary_op) {
                    state.supply += net_output;
                }
            } else {
                // Intermediate / final goods: run production chain with Leontief inputs.
                let chains = match economy.chains_by_output.get(&primary_op) {
                    Some(c) => c.clone(),
                    None => continue,
                };

                for chain in &chains {
                    // Leontief constraint: minimum input availability fraction
                    let mut capacity_fraction = 1.0_f64;
                    for input in &chain.inputs {
                        if let Some(state) = node.commodities.get(&input.commodity_id) {
                            let available = state.stockpile;
                            let required = input.quantity * effective_capacity;
                            if required > 0.0 {
                                capacity_fraction =
                                    capacity_fraction.min(available / required).clamp(0.0, 1.0);
                            }
                        } else {
                            capacity_fraction = 0.0;
                            break;
                        }
                    }

                    // Apply productivity multiplier
                    let prod_mult = prod.for_tier(&chain_output_tier(economy, chain));
                    let gross_output =
                        effective_capacity * chain.output_quantity * capacity_fraction * prod_mult;
                    let net_output = gross_output * (1.0 - arch_params.supply_withheld);

                    // Consume inputs (Leontief: fixed-coefficient deduction)
                    for input in &chain.inputs {
                        if let Some(state) = node.commodities.get_mut(&input.commodity_id) {
                            let consumed = input.quantity * effective_capacity * capacity_fraction;
                            state.stockpile = (state.stockpile - consumed).max(0.0);
                        }
                    }

                    // Add net output to supply
                    if let Some(state) = node.commodities.get_mut(&chain.output_commodity_id) {
                        state.supply += net_output;
                    }
                }
            }

            // Price premium: apply archetype price signal to primary commodity at this node.
            // Positive premium pushes price up; negative discounts it.
            // Applied as a small additive tâtonnement nudge capped to avoid instability.
            if arch_params.price_premium.abs() > 1e-6 {
                if let Some(state) = node.commodities.get_mut(&primary_op) {
                    let base_price = economy
                        .commodity_map
                        .get(&primary_op)
                        .map_or(1.0, |c| c.base_price);
                    let nudge = base_price * arch_params.price_premium * ALPHA;
                    state.price = (state.price + nudge).clamp(base_price * 0.05, base_price * 20.0);
                }
            }
        }

        // --- Demand step ---
        // Population demand for final goods and services.
        // Industrial demand (chain inputs) was already deducted during production.
        //
        // Shadow economy (D-174): shadow goods satisfy a fraction of formal demand,
        // reducing formal-sector stockpile consumption proportionally.
        let shadow_intensity = shadow.intensity.get(system_id).copied().unwrap_or(0.0);
        let shadow_coverage = shadow_intensity * SHADOW_DEMAND_COVERAGE;

        for commodity in &economy.commodities {
            let base_demand = base_population_demand(system_info.population, &commodity.tier);

            // D-186/D-188: reduce fusion_fuel utility demand if gate energy is connected
            let raw_demand = if commodity.id == "fusion_fuel"
                && system_info.gate_energy_connected
                && commodity.tier != "raw"
            {
                base_demand * GATE_ENERGY_DEMAND_REDUCTION
            } else {
                base_demand
            };

            // Shadow economy reduces formal-sector consumption (some demand met off-books)
            let demand = raw_demand * (1.0 - shadow_coverage);

            if let Some(state) = node.commodities.get_mut(&commodity.id) {
                state.demand = demand;
                // Domestic consumption from stockpile
                state.stockpile = (state.stockpile - demand).max(0.0);
            }
        }

        // --- Stockpile update ---
        // Add this tick's supply to stockpile
        for state in node.commodities.values_mut() {
            state.stockpile += state.supply;
        }

        // --- Price adjustment (tâtonnement, Layer 1 local) ---
        // Adjust based on stockpile level relative to demand.
        // At equilibrium, stockpile ≈ INITIAL_STOCKPILE_BUFFER × demand.
        for (commodity_id, state) in &mut node.commodities {
            let equilibrium_stock = state.demand * INITIAL_STOCKPILE_BUFFER;
            let base_price = economy
                .commodity_map
                .get(commodity_id)
                .map_or(1.0, |c| c.base_price);

            // Positive excess → price falls; negative excess → price rises
            let excess = if equilibrium_stock > 0.0 {
                (state.stockpile - equilibrium_stock) / equilibrium_stock
            } else if state.supply > 0.0 {
                1.0 // over-supplied vs zero demand
            } else {
                0.0
            };

            state.price =
                (state.price * (1.0 - ALPHA * excess)).clamp(base_price * 0.05, base_price * 20.0);
        }
    }
}

/// Look up the tier of the output commodity for a given chain.
fn chain_output_tier(economy: &Economy, chain: &crate::db::ProductionChain) -> String {
    economy
        .commodity_map
        .get(&chain.output_commodity_id)
        .map(|c| c.tier.clone())
        .unwrap_or_else(|| "intermediate".to_string())
}