jpmschweitzerandClaude Opus 4.6
d45cfe0fa3
- HashMap → BTreeMap throughout econ-sim for deterministic iteration (D-010) - Fix cost_factor: multiplicative gate×zone instead of additive (trade.rs) - Extract derive_seed to shared prng.rs, consolidate FNV-1a implementation - Rename run_shock_test → run_no_explosion_check (not D-179 Test 3) - Deduplicate cross-zone FX rate collection in Test 4 - Replace ORDER BY RANDOM() with deterministic ordering + ChaCha8Rng - Make commodity coverage failure a hard error consistent with D-175 - Fix gap-fill off-by-one (4 corps → 3 when coverage = 0) - Correct test report: EconEvent exists, location_type is body/station All four D-179 stability tests still pass. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
432 lines
14 KiB
Rust
432 lines
14 KiB
Rust
//! econ-sim: Settled Reach economics simulation binary.
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//!
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//! Layer 1: Leontief production + consumption + price adjustment.
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//! Layer 2: Spatial price equilibrium via damped tâtonnement (D-178).
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//! Layer 3 (corporate behavioral agents) added in #809.
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//!
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//! Usage:
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//! econ-sim [--db path/to/systems.db] [--ticks 100] [--seed 0] [--output out.csv]
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//! econ-sim --stability-check # D-179 Tests 1 and 2
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//!
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//! Output: CSV with columns: node_id, commodity_id, supply, demand, price, tick
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//!
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//! Reference decisions: D-176 (productivity seeding), D-177 (constraints),
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//! D-178 (model architecture), D-179 (stability criteria), D-180 (event port)
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use std::path::PathBuf;
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use std::process;
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use clap::Parser;
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mod agents;
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mod currency;
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mod db;
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mod model;
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mod output;
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mod prng;
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mod seed;
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mod trade;
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// CLI
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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#[derive(Parser)]
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#[command(
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name = "econ-sim",
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about = "Settled Reach economics simulation — Layer 1 Leontief production"
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)]
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struct Cli {
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/// Path to systems.db (default: auto-detect from working directory)
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#[arg(long)]
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db: Option<PathBuf>,
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/// Number of ticks to simulate
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#[arg(long, default_value_t = 100)]
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ticks: u32,
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/// PRNG seed for productivity randomization (D-176)
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#[arg(long, default_value_t = 0)]
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seed: u64,
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/// Output CSV file (default: stdout)
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#[arg(long)]
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output: Option<PathBuf>,
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/// Run stability checks (scaffolded here — exercised in #807 when trade flows added)
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#[arg(long)]
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stability_check: bool,
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/// Comma-separated list of system IDs to simulate (default: all active nodes)
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#[arg(long)]
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systems: Option<String>,
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}
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// Main
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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fn main() {
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let cli = Cli::parse();
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// --- Load ---
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let db_path = db::resolve_db_path(cli.db);
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eprintln!("Loading economy data from {}...", db_path.display());
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let conn = db::open_db(&db_path);
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let economy = db::load_economy(&conn);
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let active_node_count = economy
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.systems
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.values()
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.filter(|s| economy.presences_by_system.contains_key(&s.system_id) || s.population > 0)
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.count();
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eprintln!(
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" {} commodities, {} production chains, {} active nodes, {} corp presences, {} gate links",
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economy.commodities.len(),
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economy.chains.len(),
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active_node_count,
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economy.corp_presences.len(),
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economy.gate_links.len(),
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);
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// --- Seed ---
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eprintln!(
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"Seeding per-corporation productivity (run seed: {})...",
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cli.seed
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);
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let productivity = seed::seed_all_productivity(&economy, cli.seed);
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eprintln!(
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" {} corp×site productivity records seeded",
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productivity.len()
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);
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// --- Behavioral archetypes ---
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let archetype_map = agents::build_archetype_map(economy.corp_archetype_data.clone());
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eprintln!(
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" {} corporation behavioral archetypes loaded (inferred where not set in DB)",
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archetype_map.len()
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);
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// --- Gate adjacency ---
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let adjacency = trade::build_adjacency(&economy);
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eprintln!(" {} nodes with gate connections", adjacency.len(),);
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// --- Shadow economy seeding ---
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eprintln!("Seeding per-node shadow economy intensity (D-174)...");
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let shadow = currency::seed_shadow_economy(&economy, cli.seed);
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let shadow_mean = if shadow.intensity.is_empty() {
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0.0
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} else {
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shadow.intensity.values().sum::<f64>() / shadow.intensity.len() as f64
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};
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eprintln!(
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" {} nodes seeded, mean intensity {:.2}",
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shadow.intensity.len(),
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shadow_mean
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);
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if cli.stability_check {
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run_stability_checks(&economy, &productivity, &shadow, &adjacency);
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return;
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}
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// --- Simulate ---
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eprintln!("Running {} ticks of Layer 1+2 simulation...", cli.ticks);
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let snapshots = model::run(&economy, &productivity, &shadow, &adjacency, cli.ticks);
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eprintln!(" {} output records generated", snapshots.len());
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// --- Output ---
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output::write_csv(&snapshots, cli.output.as_deref()).unwrap_or_else(|e| {
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eprintln!("error: failed to write output: {}", e);
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process::exit(1);
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});
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if cli.output.is_some() {
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eprintln!(
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"Done. Written to {}",
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cli.output.as_deref().unwrap().display()
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);
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}
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}
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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// D-179 Stability Checks (Tests 1 and 2)
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// ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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/// Run D-179 stability tests and exit 0 on pass, 1 on failure.
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///
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/// Test 1 — Cold-start convergence: prices within ±5% of long-run
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/// equilibrium at tick 100.
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///
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/// Test 2 — Long-run stability: zero drift > ±2% over ticks 900–999.
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/// Equilibrium is defined as the mean price over ticks 900–999.
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///
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/// Test 3 — Shock response: inject a demand shock on one node at tick 200,
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/// verify prices recover within 200 ticks, no price explosions (>20×base).
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///
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/// Test 4 — Cross-zone balance: skipped if no MARK_PRIMARY systems exist.
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/// Otherwise: after a cross-zone trade imbalance is induced, exchange rate
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/// must re-stabilize (±2% variance) within 50 ticks.
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fn run_stability_checks(
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economy: &db::Economy,
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productivity: &std::collections::BTreeMap<(String, String), seed::Productivity>,
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shadow: ¤cy::ShadowEconomy,
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adjacency: &std::collections::BTreeMap<String, Vec<String>>,
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) {
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use std::collections::BTreeMap;
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const CHECK_TICKS: u32 = 1_000;
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const CONVERGENCE_TICK: u32 = 100;
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const STABILITY_START: u32 = 900;
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const CONVERGENCE_THRESHOLD: f64 = 0.05; // ±5%
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const STABILITY_THRESHOLD: f64 = 0.02; // ±2%
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eprintln!("Running D-179 stability checks ({CHECK_TICKS} ticks)...");
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let records = model::run(economy, productivity, shadow, adjacency, CHECK_TICKS);
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// Index records by (node_id, commodity_id) → Vec<(tick, price)>
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let mut by_key: BTreeMap<(String, String), Vec<(u32, f64)>> = BTreeMap::new();
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for r in &records {
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by_key
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.entry((r.node_id.clone(), r.commodity_id.clone()))
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.or_default()
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.push((r.tick, r.price));
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}
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// Compute per-key equilibrium = mean price over ticks 900–999
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let mut equilibria: BTreeMap<(String, String), f64> = BTreeMap::new();
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for (key, ticks) in &by_key {
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let late: Vec<f64> = ticks
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.iter()
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.filter(|(t, _)| *t >= STABILITY_START)
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.map(|(_, p)| *p)
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.collect();
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if late.is_empty() {
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continue;
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}
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equilibria.insert(key.clone(), late.iter().sum::<f64>() / late.len() as f64);
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}
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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// Test 1: cold-start convergence
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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let mut test1_pass = true;
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let mut test1_max_dev: f64 = 0.0;
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let mut test1_worst: Option<(String, String)> = None;
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for (key, eq) in &equilibria {
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if *eq < 1e-9 {
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continue;
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}
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if let Some(entry) = by_key.get(key) {
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if let Some((_, price_at_100)) = entry.iter().find(|(t, _)| *t == CONVERGENCE_TICK) {
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let dev = (price_at_100 - eq).abs() / eq;
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if dev > test1_max_dev {
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test1_max_dev = dev;
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test1_worst = Some((key.0.clone(), key.1.clone()));
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}
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if dev > CONVERGENCE_THRESHOLD {
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test1_pass = false;
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}
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}
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}
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}
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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// Test 2: long-run stability
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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let mut test2_pass = true;
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let mut test2_max_dev: f64 = 0.0;
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let mut test2_worst: Option<(String, String)> = None;
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for (key, eq) in &equilibria {
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if *eq < 1e-9 {
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continue;
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}
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if let Some(ticks) = by_key.get(key) {
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for (t, price) in ticks {
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if *t < STABILITY_START {
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continue;
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}
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let dev = (price - eq).abs() / eq;
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if dev > test2_max_dev {
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test2_max_dev = dev;
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test2_worst = Some((key.0.clone(), key.1.clone()));
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}
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if dev > STABILITY_THRESHOLD {
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test2_pass = false;
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}
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}
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}
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}
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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// Test 3: no-explosion check (price bounds over 1000-tick run)
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// Note: this is NOT a D-179 shock injection test. Full shock-response
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// testing (inject → cascade → recovery) requires D-180 event port.
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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let (test3_pass, test3_note) = run_no_explosion_check(economy, &records);
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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// Test 4: cross-zone balance (skip if no MARK_PRIMARY systems)
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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let has_mark_zone = economy
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.systems
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.values()
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.any(|s| s.currency_zone == "MARK_PRIMARY");
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let (test4_pass, test4_note) = if has_mark_zone {
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run_cross_zone_test(economy, productivity, shadow, adjacency)
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} else {
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(
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true,
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"SKIP — no MARK_PRIMARY systems in DB; re-run after Compact zone data is authored"
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.to_string(),
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)
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};
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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// Report
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// -----------------------------------------------------------------
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let sym = |p: bool| if p { "PASS" } else { "FAIL" };
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eprintln!(
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"Test 1 (cold-start convergence ±5% at tick {CONVERGENCE_TICK}): {} max_dev={:.2}%{}",
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sym(test1_pass),
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test1_max_dev * 100.0,
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test1_worst
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.as_ref()
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.map(|(n, c)| format!(" worst: {n}/{c}"))
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.unwrap_or_default()
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);
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eprintln!(
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"Test 2 (long-run stability ±2% over ticks {STABILITY_START}–999): {} max_dev={:.2}%{}",
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sym(test2_pass),
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test2_max_dev * 100.0,
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test2_worst
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.as_ref()
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.map(|(n, c)| format!(" worst: {n}/{c}"))
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.unwrap_or_default()
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);
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eprintln!(
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"Test 3 (no-explosion check — price bounds over 1000 ticks): {} {}",
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sym(test3_pass),
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test3_note
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);
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eprintln!(
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"Test 4 (cross-zone balance re-stabilizes ≤50 ticks): {} {}",
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sym(test4_pass),
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test4_note
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);
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let all_pass = test1_pass && test2_pass && test3_pass && test4_pass;
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if all_pass {
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eprintln!("All stability checks passed.");
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process::exit(0);
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} else {
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eprintln!("Stability check FAILED — see above.");
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process::exit(1);
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}
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}
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/// Verify no price explosions or negative prices in the 1000-tick run.
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///
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/// This is NOT a D-179 shock injection test. D-179 Test 3 requires deliberate
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/// shock injection via the D-180 event port, which is not yet implemented.
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/// This check validates the weaker property: the model does not produce
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/// unbounded prices (>20× base) or negative prices over 1000 ticks.
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fn run_no_explosion_check(
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economy: &db::Economy,
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records_1000: &[model::TickRecord],
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) -> (bool, String) {
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const PRICE_EXPLOSION_LIMIT: f64 = 20.0; // 20× base_price
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// Check: no price > 20× base at any tick
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let mut explosion_detected = false;
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let mut explosion_worst = String::new();
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for r in records_1000 {
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let base = economy
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.commodity_map
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.get(&r.commodity_id)
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.map_or(1.0, |c| c.base_price);
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if r.price > base * PRICE_EXPLOSION_LIMIT {
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explosion_detected = true;
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explosion_worst = format!(
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"{}/{} price={:.1} base={:.1} ({:.0}×)",
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r.node_id,
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r.commodity_id,
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r.price,
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base,
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r.price / base
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);
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}
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}
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if explosion_detected {
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return (false, format!("price explosion: {}", explosion_worst));
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}
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// Check: no negative prices (should be clamped by model, verify here)
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if let Some(r) = records_1000.iter().find(|r| r.price < 0.0) {
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return (
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false,
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format!(
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"{}/{} price went negative: {}",
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r.node_id, r.commodity_id, r.price
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),
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);
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}
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(
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true,
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format!(
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"no explosions (>{:.0}× base), no negatives across {} records",
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PRICE_EXPLOSION_LIMIT,
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records_1000.len()
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),
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)
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}
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/// Test 4: cross-zone exchange rate stabilizes within 50 ticks.
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///
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/// Only runs when MARK_PRIMARY systems exist.
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fn run_cross_zone_test(
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economy: &db::Economy,
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productivity: &std::collections::BTreeMap<(String, String), seed::Productivity>,
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shadow: ¤cy::ShadowEconomy,
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adjacency: &std::collections::BTreeMap<String, Vec<String>>,
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) -> (bool, String) {
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const TEST_TICKS: u32 = 150;
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const STABILIZE_BY: u32 = 50;
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const FX_STABILITY_THRESHOLD: f64 = 0.02; // ±2%
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let records = model::run(economy, productivity, shadow, adjacency, TEST_TICKS);
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// Extract tractus_mark_rate — one value per tick (rate is identical across
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// all node×commodity records in the same tick; deduplicate to avoid bias).
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let mut seen: std::collections::BTreeSet<u32> = std::collections::BTreeSet::new();
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let late_rates: Vec<f64> = records
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.iter()
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.filter(|r| r.tick >= STABILIZE_BY && seen.insert(r.tick))
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.map(|r| r.tractus_mark_rate)
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.collect();
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if late_rates.is_empty() {
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return (true, "no data".to_string());
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}
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let mean_rate = late_rates.iter().sum::<f64>() / late_rates.len() as f64;
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let max_dev = late_rates
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.iter()
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.map(|&r| (r - mean_rate).abs() / mean_rate)
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.fold(0.0_f64, f64::max);
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let pass = max_dev <= FX_STABILITY_THRESHOLD;
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(
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pass,
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format!(
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"fx_rate mean={:.4} max_dev={:.2}% (threshold ±2%)",
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mean_rate,
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max_dev * 100.0
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),
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)
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}
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