settled-reach/docs/sprints/sprint-32/workshop-796-round1.md

Workshop #796 — Economics Layer Design

Round 1 Findings + Cross-Discussion Summary

Date: 2026-04-05 Sprint: 32 (planning branch) Status: Round 1 complete. Round 2 (proposals) in progress.

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Round 1 Findings by Agent

Gestalt (Mechanics): Mapped the economics layer against three reference games — X4 (production chains, regional price differentials), EVE (information asymmetry as a core mechanic, not a side effect), Rimworld (wealth as storyteller threat multiplier). Key insight: "inspect" is the master economic verb — every economic action is first an information decision. Mapped D-131 verb vocabulary (buy, sell, hire, rent, contract, inspect, negotiate, invest) against required backing systems. Flagged two dangers: (1) economics divorced from the social/NPC layer loses its texture, and (2) perfect market information kills the inspect verb.

Miri (Lore Inventory): Full corporation census from existing wiki: 13 named corporations across 5 tiers (Syndic reach-wide → sub-Syndic regional → local). Documented economic geography by corridor: Core (institutional), North (self-sufficient, exports via corridor), South (cooperative extraction, legal industry), West (Germanic/Nordic luxury and transit hub), East (underdeveloped in lore — flagged as a gap). Identified 14 production→destination supply chain flows from wiki content. Found 4 commercial intelligence institutions (Mercado, Ferreira Monteiro, VGV, Adams & Ford) that don't share data with each other — natural basis for information asymmetry. Catalogued 10 specific lore gaps requiring resolution: currency names, price formation mechanism, Syndic trade mechanics, transport economics, Van Maanen's Star economic profile, east reach identity, Compact economics, Prometheus pricing, ownership registry, supply/demand triggers.

Nigel (Replayability): Divided economic elements into fixed-by-lore (corporate identities, corridor geography, gate topology, established monopolies) and per-run seeded (corporate health states, active disruptions, political alignment, regional supply balances). Proposed 7 emergent story generators: marble chokepoint, Mercado shelf signal, Stalownia cascade, accidental monopoly, succession shock, gate rate event, overproduction crash. Critical insight: the player should understand HOW the economy works without that knowledge revealing WHAT IS TRUE in the current run. Advocated for observable world-state signals over UI reports — the economy should communicate through events, not dashboards.

Paula (Political Drama): Argued that economy and politics are the same system in the Settled Reach — the Compact grew through commercial arithmetic, not ideology. Corporations aren't faction-aligned; they ARE factions with internal contradictions. Key reframing: social pressure isn't a modifier on supply/demand — it is inherent in price formation. The Commission certification IS the price floor. The Compact tariff differential IS the smuggling incentive. Proposed 6 narrative hook categories: downstream consequences, the Ring as market correction, slow accumulation, Compact membership as a margin decision, corporate leverage as coercion, cultural products as political signals. Mapped 8 social pressure modifiers with mechanisms and dramatic potential.

Tyre (Technical): Baseline: bevy_ecs 0.18, 10 ticks/sec, deterministic RNG, existing simulation tier model already in place. Systems.db contains 301 systems, 3,240 bodies, 466 stations, 20 corporations — but system_economy is 96% empty (critical gap). Assessed computational cost: 301 systems is sub-microsecond per price update tick; ~3,700 per-body nodes is still trivial. Recommended development path: standalone Rust binary first (same pattern as main server), then server integration, then player interaction — Tier 1 → 2 → 3. Identified schema gaps: commodities table, production_chains table, trade_routes table needed before simulation can run.

Burnelli-Sheldon (Economics): Proposed a three-layer model: Leontief I/O production matrix (structural), spatial price equilibrium (geographic arbitrage), corporate agent overlay (strategic behavior). Price adjustment via lagged tâtonnement with 5 elasticity categories to prevent cobweb oscillation. Recommended 15–25 commodity types in a 3-tier production hierarchy (raw → intermediate → final). Proposed 8 tuning parameters with suggested ranges for calibration. Recommended single currency for v0.2. Flagged key pitfalls: simulating what the player can't see creates dead computation; money sinks required to prevent infinite accumulation; arbitrage death spirals need dampening via transport costs.

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Cross-Discussion Convergence

After agents read each other's work:

• Per-body granularity: All agents accepted the per-body simulation unit. No resistance. The geographic richness is worth the additional node count (~3,700 vs. 301), and Tyre confirmed it's still computationally trivial.
• Drama reclassified: Gestalt, Paula, and Nigel's drama generators (emergent crises, political hooks, replayability events) are valid — but they come from the event layer (storyteller, disaster events, political triggers), not from the economics layer itself. The economics layer provides the terrain; the event layer generates the weather.
• Productivity seeding accepted: Seeding productivity coefficients (mine output, harvest size, factory efficiency) instead of seeding corporate health states or disruptions preserves the lore-accurate starting picture while still generating run-to-run variance. Nigel's concern about metagame erosion is addressed — same corporations, different production cards.
• Phase 2 = no player verbs: Broad agreement that Tyre's Tier 1 (standalone sim proving autonomous tick) is the correct Phase 2 deliverable. Player verbs (D-131) are Phase 3+ territory.
• Three currencies: Overrides Burnelli-Sheldon's single-currency recommendation. Three economic blocs create structural tension without requiring event generation. Burnelli-Sheldon's recommendation is a rejected alternative (R-NNN pending formal closure).

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Lead Directives (Jeroen — binding)

	Directive	Summary
a	Three currencies	One per economic bloc (Earth / Concord / Assembly). Exchange rate friction and currency arbitrage are structural features, not events. Names TBD.
b	Per-body simulation	~3,700 nodes (3,240 bodies + 466 stations), not 301 systems. Planet and orbital station can have different prices.
c	Hundreds of corporations	Current 13–20 is too thin. Need ~200+ corporations, brands, and economic players before a credible simulation is possible.
d	Seed productivity, not starting positions	Seed mine output rates, harvest sizes, factory efficiency — not corporate health or disruption states. Same lore picture, different productivity cards each run.
e	Economics is boring	The simulation seeks equilibrium. It is a backdrop, not a drama generator. Events impact it from outside; it responds and restabilizes.
f	No player-facing design in Phase 2	Deliverable: simulation ticking autonomously. No player verbs, no UI for economic actions. Prove it works before designing how the player touches it.

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Proposed Structures (for Round 2 refinement)

Corporation tiers (Miri's census → expanded)

Tier	Scope	Examples	Count (current)
1	Syndic reach-wide	[TBD — 1–2 entities]	1–2
2	Multi-corridor regional	[TBD — major players]	~5
3	Single-corridor dominant	Stalownia Group, Mercado	~6
4	Local/sector	Various	~6
5	Micro / brand level	Shops, franchises	Hundreds needed

Market node tiering (from Tyre's data)

Tier	Description	Approximate count
Active	Major stations, capitals, key trade hubs — full price simulation	~760
Passive	Smaller bodies, minor moons — simplified or derived pricing	~2,480
Total		~3,700

Exact active/passive threshold to be defined in Round 2.

Currency naming (Round 2 task)

Three currencies required — names confirmed in Round 2 lead feedback. See Round 2 report for corrected framing.

Currency	Issuer	Role
Tractus	Concord Assembly (Sirius / Groombridge)	Main Reach currency — accepted everywhere. The establishment currency.
Mark	Compact of Westphalia	Breakaway currency — created to disconnect from Tractus. Mostly not accepted outside the Compact.
Sol	Sol system (no active issuer)	Niche, finite pool, untraceable — used in crime and premium Earth goods.

Note: Round 1 bloc labels (Earth/Concord/Assembly) were agent proposals, not confirmed lore. Corrected in Round 2 and further refined: Mark is Compact of Westphalia, not Concord Assembly.

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Open Questions (unresolved entering Round 2)

#	Question	Assigned to	Priority
OQ-1	Currency names — three blocs, lore-consistent names	Miri, Mellanie	High — blocks D-record
OQ-2	Corporation density threshold — how many is "enough"? A number needed for the D-record	Gestalt, Tyre	High
OQ-3	East Reach economic identity — lore gap flagged by Miri, no corridor character defined	Miri	Medium
OQ-4	Exchange rate model — how do cross-bloc transactions work mechanically? Fixed rates, floating, managed?	Burnelli-Sheldon, Tyre	Medium
OQ-5	Productivity → corporation sequencing — do we need ~200 corporations defined before simulation can run, or can simulation run with 13 and corporations be added incrementally?	Tyre, SI	High — Phase 1/2 boundary
OQ-6	Compact economics — tariff differential and membership cost mechanics not yet specified	Paula, Burnelli-Sheldon	Medium
OQ-7	Van Maanen's Star economic profile — flagged by Miri as a gap; important because it's the tycoon bookmark starting location (D-117, D-118)	Miri	Deferred — out of Phase 2 scope per Round 2 lead directive (e)

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Record implications (Qatux flags)

• Q-094 ("Chart widgets for economy/market insert UI") — existing open question in decisions/questions-architecture.md. Resolved-deferred to Phase 3+ under directive (f). Will be marked when Round 3 closes.
• D-131 (economic verb vocabulary) — valid, not superseded. But Phase 3+ territory under directive (f). Cross-reference note needed in economics.md.
• R-NNN (single currency rejected) — Burnelli-Sheldon's single-currency recommendation becomes a rejected alternative. Rationale: three-currency structural bloc design creates tension without event generation. Pending formal closure in Round 3.
• Phase 1/2 boundary — directive (c) creates a sequencing question: hundreds of corporations = Phase 1 content work. If simulation requires dense corporation data to be meaningful, the Phase 1/Phase 2 boundary may need clarification. Flagged for Jeroen's attention before Round 2 locks proposals.

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Compiled by Qatux. Round 2 complete — see workshop-796-round2.md.